Grain prices have been falling for the second consecutive year, while fertilizer and fuel keep getting more expensive. If your gross margin calculation is from years ago, you might end up in the red in 2026 without even realizing it. Here are the specific numbers and solutions.

Grain prices have dropped significantly over two years

According to BalticAgro exchange data (03.05.2026), MATIF wheat May 2026 futures are trading at €191.50/t. According to METK market information, the Q1 2026 wheat purchase price was 16.2% lower than in Q1 2025 — and in 2025, the price had already fallen 18.5% compared to late 2024. This means two consecutive years of steady price decline. Rapeseed remains stronger according to BalticAgro data — August futures at €520.75/t — but rapeseed margins are also under pressure from rising input costs.

Fertilizer prices are rising — and even more is forecast for autumn

Before the Iran conflict, approximately 20–30% of global fertilizer trade passed through the Strait of Hormuz, including 23% of ammonium and 34% of urea — the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer. Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, the urea price at Egyptian ports has risen to approximately $700/t, compared to the pre-war level of $400–490/t, representing an increase of nearly 50%. According to Rabobank estimates, upward price pressure on nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers will persist for the next six months through the end of 2026. Therefore, cheaper inputs by autumn should not be expected.

Milk prices offer no support

METK Q1 2026 market information shows that drinking milk retail prices are on a downward trend and butter producer prices fell 17.3% compared to Q4 2025. This means that in mixed enterprises where crop and livestock production go hand in hand, the dairy sector does not support gross margins.

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What this means in practice

The situation is clear: the revenue side is compressed, costs are rising. It is precisely in such conditions that what I wrote in a previous post matters most — the logic of decisions, not volume.

Inputs cannot be planned today the same way as in 2024–2025, when grain prices were higher than they are now. Currently, revenue and costs are moving in opposite directions. Therefore, the question is not just how much fertilizer to apply — the question is whether a specific euro per hectare will return with sufficient probability.

We do not control the weather or the market. But we can control the logic of our decisions.

Sources: BalticAgro exchange prices 03.05.2026; METK market information Q1 2026; IFPRI April 2026; Rabobank April 2026